A question of balance...
8th January 2015
Good afternoon, friends,
In this issue of Punters’ Verdict….
- Happy New Year….
- A question of balance….
- On the Grapevine….
Happy New Year….
Happy New Year to all readers of Punters’ Verdict. We hope your 2015 will be both prosperous and peaceful.
Now let’s crack straight on with it – because I’ve been presented with a puzzle I just can’t understand. Maybe you can help me with it or suggest plausible explanations for what I’m looking at.
Take a look at the sales page of The Racing Insider.
This service presents itself as the brainchild of someone called Jenny K. We’ve never heard of her. But if you scroll down to the bottom part of the letter where she signs off, to the left you can see a picture of her with a selection of equestrian accoutrements – a saddle, riding crops and suchlike (racy stuff if you’ve got that kind of mind).
I’d suggest she’s a cynical invention designed to appeal to the desperate yearnings of desperate men – but that’s neither here nor there.
The service is billed as an ‘international cash generating phenomenon’. It is a betting strategy that can ‘quickly capture £1890.00 betting profits in 5 days….’ It is presented as some kind of Promised Land. It could be just what we need at the start of a new betting year. But it might also be the betting equivalent of the Ebola virus.
We don’t know. We haven’t tested the claims. And we will probably never do so. Why? Because we’ve seen enough in the promotional literature to dissuade us from getting involved. Our suspicions have been aroused.
A question of balance….
Straight under the headline claims at the top of the page we are presented with a screenshot of what looks like the betting history of a bet365 account.
- The transactions listed relate to settled racing bets placed on 7th October 2014. Three horses are backed – Kdharu, King Calypso, and Peace Seeker. The last two named horses win their races. Profits on the day amount to just under £360.00 (once stakes have been accounted for). And the account concerned has a sports-betting balance of £22,124.80.
I don’t know how many betting accounts you have lying around with 5-figure sums in them. Not too many I’d guess. And I’d speculate that most punters will never have an account containing a surplus of that volume. So we’re getting an impression straight off the bat here. The owner of this account – presumably Jenny K – not only finds winners but has a betting balance that suggests she finds plenty of them.
Now scroll down a little further to the next screenshot of the bet365 betting history.
- This one relates to bets placed on horses the following day – 8th October 2014. Three more horses are backed – Stoked, Crafty Choice and Dark Spirit. This time they all win! We’re witnessing an incredible purple patch of form here. Profits on the day amount to £435.00 (after stakes have been taken into account). That’s almost £800.00 profit in just two days of betting. Brilliant.
But let’s just hang on. Look at the account balance in the top right hand corner of the second screenshot. What’s going on here? It still reads £22,124.80. Despite the settled winning bets of 8th October the account balance hasn’t moved an inch. This is a very curious state of affairs.
Scroll down again to the next screenshot….
- This relates to the following day – 9th October 2014. This time 2 bets on horses – and 2 more winners. I make that 7 winners from 8 picks. I don’t think I’ve managed that kind of strike-rate in nearly 30-years of betting. This Jenny K is clearly a Group 1 filly. Profits for the day run to £157.50 (after stakes are deducted).
But look at that account balance. It still reads £22,124.80.
Are bet365 no longer paying out winnings to customers? Are we witnessing some weird circumstance where Jenny K likes to keep her balance at exactly £22,124.80 – only taking her screenshots after that day’s winnings have been withdrawn from her account? I’m not getting it.
Move on to the next screenshot….
- This one relates to 10th October 2014. It’s a familiar story. Three more horses. Amazing success with 3 more winners. Profits on the day total more than £500.
But still that betting balance remains stuck on £22,124.80. Jenny K has had 10 winning horses from just 11 bets. Profits run to 4-figures, yet the scoreboard hasn’t moved at all across the 4 days.
I’ve been in touch with bet365 and asked when they last changed the battery on the Sports Betting Balance counter. And I am assured by the call center bod I spoke to that it is changed regularly. So it can’t be that….
Anybody else got any plausible explanations as to this state of affairs? I’ve got to admit, I’m scratching my head. Answers on a postcard please….
On the Grapevine….
What we hear and what we see in the betting industry this week….
- Not Today thank you – my day always starts with the Shipping Forecast on BBC Radio 4 (don’t ask). Then it’s on to the News Briefing, Prayer for the Day and Farming Today. I’m a man of strange and eclectic tastes. I switch off before the Today programme begins (I can’t stand listening to people talk politics) and on a betting level that’s exactly the right decision. Analysis of the programme’s racing tips across 2014 reveals that 596 tips produced 132 winners (at 22%) but produced a level stakes loss of 62 points. The programme describes the performance as their ‘best year on record’. I think I’ll keep switching off.
- In the interests of fair play – last time out we raised a concern about Jack Turner’s AW Tips service. Some PV readers were reporting non-delivery of tips, non-response to emails and no refunds. Fair is fair and we have to report the view of PV reader, DK. He says: ‘I have been with Jack Taylor since the beginning of November. I get selections most days there is an AW meeting, 115 so far. 32% strike rate. 29 point profit. One of the better tipsters, and I've seen a lot.’
- One man, many services? PV reader MP adds his experience to the mix: ‘I joined the 1 Point Wins service and Jack Turners AW tips. I joined in early November (as well as a third AW service run by someone called Carl Hepworth) on the recommendation of Brian Stott, who puts out a free AW system of his own. Apart from the fact that all 3 services seem to be run by the same person - tips all arrive by email within a few minutes of each other, and tips are often duplicated on more than one service - I have found selections do arrive as promised and have generated a reasonable profit (about 20 points between the 3 after excluding duplications).’
- Lose weight & beat the bookie – after a Christmas of indulgence this is the time of year many of us think about shedding a few stone. And, if you’re seeking a bit of motivation, you should be aware that your weight loss efforts can represent a profit opportunity. Consider the story of Patrick Barnes. Last year he bet £100 with William Hill that he would lose 5 stone over 2014. And, after hitting his target, he’s drawn a return of £2600.00. Apparently William Hill accepts 100+ weight-loss wagers every year. I wonder if they offer the option to bet on weight-gain. If they do, I think I’ve found a new market to specialize in!
- If you play on FOBTS then give them up for 2015 – Fixed Odds Betting Terminals are a particular dislike of mine. You can’t win on them long term and the bookmakers deploy mountains of these machines in the poorest areas so that they can prey on the dumb and the most desperate people in society. If a machine could be invented to create a gambling addiction then it is my belief that it would look, feel and play very much like a FOBT. FOBTs destroy lives. They are machines that create and appeal to betting junkies. Make no mistake about it. Read about the latest life destroyed by FOBT betting.
On that note of deadly seriousness, I will sign off for today. Go well, folks.
I’ll be back with the Verdict next week.