Latest Cases - February 2014

If good tipping services were girls...

6th February 2014

Good afternoon, friends,

In this issue of Punters’ Verdict

  • If good tipping services were girls…
  • A service with relationship potential…
  • Have you dated this predator?

If good tipping services were girls…

I am permanently trialing tipsters. Not a week passes without me monitoring, recording and analyzing the selections of one service or another. That being so, it is fair to say that I live life in an almost perpetual state of abject disappointment. I wouldn’t want to pay for the vast majority of tipping services that I have trialed over the years.

  • If you asked me to put figures on it I’d say that 80% of tipping services lose money – hand over fist – from breakfast until bedtime. These services are the equivalent of the firing squad – at least it is over quickly.
  • Approximately 15% of services take one step forward and two steps back – in terms of results achieved their default position is to hover around the break-even point. Over time the client’s bank roll is eroded by subscription fees. Like fruit machines that are ‘due’ to pay out but never quite do, these services are slow death.
  • About 3% of services have a moment in the sunshine where something goes incredibly well. The service dines out on that golden period for months – it never lets you forget its moment of genius. The great results are a long-term boost for the bottom-line – grand stuff for promotional purposes. But ultimately, the purple patch cannot be sustained – the service reverts to business as usual, bottom-line figures eventually normalize and, like childhood, that great performance fades into history never to be experienced or enjoyed again. 
  • Only 2% of services I look at are worth a second glance. If tipping services were girls then we might all be sprinting up to the local monastery to take a vow of chastity. There simply aren’t enough good ones to go around – and who wants to be stranded with the rest? Just locating a good service is a long-term occupation – one so onerous that it can deplete your resources to the point that when you finally get one cornered you are a spent force….

A service with relationship potential…

Now you might accuse me of having the beer goggles strapped on and it is fair to say that I haven’t known this service for very long (it only offers a 7-day trial after all) but if the JPW Racing Tipster service were a girl then it would have some relationship potential.

I might be rushing things. A seven-day trial doesn’t give you much time to get to know a service. But these days any kind of free trial at all is a bonus – and a sign of goodwill. And a service can do no more than give you a taste – free of charge – of what might be if and when you get together further down the line.

  • I trialed the JPW Racing Tipster selections between 15th and 22nd January. There were 19 selections over the period – a mix of win and each-way punts – producing 4 winning bets. That’s a strike rate of 20% and backed at advised odds to level stakes the selections produced a profit of 7 points.

Okay, that figure might not overwhelm you. But don’t forget that bottom-line was achieved over just 7 days and to £20.00 stakes amounts to £140.00. No doubt, like me you’d take that if you could get it 6 times out of seven? 

And it’s not all about the bottom-line either. All tipsters (except the very worst) drift in and out of form. And the performance during a short trial period is no guarantee or indication of future results. Rather than the bottom line though the thing I’m most focused on during a trial is whether or not a tipster shows signs of being able to find winners at decent prices.

And JPW Racing Tipster certainly ticks that box – this is no favourite-backing outfit. The average advised price of the selections over the test period amounted to 7/1 – and the service demonstratedit can hit winners fairly well at those kinds of quotes.

That’s the upside. On the downside there is no results archive on the service website – despite claims on the site’s FAQ page that one exists. There are also claims that selections are proofed to Racing Index – but that hasn’t been the case since August 2013 – see here.

After a reasonable profit in 2012 performance dropped off markedly in 2013 and proofing to Racing Index ceased. Maybe James Walsh, the guy behind the service, lost heart – that is not uncommon in the tipping world. Maybe he needed a break? Whatever, the lack of published recent results is a bit of a black mark.

All that said my recent trial was positive – and that in itself is a rarity in the tipping world. Not too many services give you a chance to try before you buy – and where they do I like to alert readers to their existence.

  • If you fancy test-driving the JPW Racing Tipster service then you can sign-up – no obligation, no need to give up card or Paypal details – right here. If you take a look then let me know how you got on…

Have you dated this predator?

To labour my analogy just a little while longer I should warn you that there is no shortage of scarlet women out there: predators who only want one thing – your money. And they don’t care what they have to do to get it.

Verdict Reader RM knows what I am talking about. He made the fatal mistake of jumping into bed with a tipster who calls himself Harry Lewis – the guy behind a service called Stable Lays

Our man tells us that Lewis – I don’t imagine that is his real name – convinced him to part with £5000 to finance a managed account that Lewis said he would use to trade the football markets. Lewis claimed he’d found a way of betting on two football markets that would produce a guaranteed profit or, at worst, a break-even trade.

The clue, of course, is in the use of the word ‘guaranteed’. Nobody can guarantee winning bets or trades. It’s a seductive idea. But in practice losses are always a possibility. Bets lose. Trades can go wrong.

The reality is that we’ll probably never know whether Lewis actually placed any trades at all. Our man tells us that for a few weeks Lewis sent him details of trades he’d supposedly placed and details of the profit he’d supposedly accrued. But RM tells us that when he asked for a withdrawal, Lewis went to ground. His phone went dead and RM tells us that multiple emails have not been answered. Needless to say, RM’s £5000 and any reported profits have not been remitted to his bank account as requested.

I have no personal experience of Harry Lewis or the Stable Lays service. But RM has reported his case to Action Fraud – a central point of contact for information about fraud and financially motivated internet crime – and to his local police force in Bury. Action Fraud is currently investigating.

We are told that the net is closing in on Mr. Lewis. Apparently, and not surprisingly, our reader is not the only punter to have fallen victim to his ‘service’.

For investigators to build a strong case - and to bring Lewis to book – information is vital. They need to know how extensive Lewis’s activities have been. If you have had a bad experience with Lewis then I urge you to report the details to Action Fraud. You can do that and get a Police Crime Reference Number right here

Meanwhile I’ll be getting onto the authorities at Wormwood Scrubs. I’ll be advising them to keep the porridge pan warm. As and when Mr. Lewis is admitted to that establishment’s tender ministrations I don’t like to think of him going without a hot meal in his belly. I know. I know. I’m all heart.

I’ll be back with the Verdict next week.  

The Judge

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