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5th June 2014
Good afternoon, friends,
In this issue of Punters’ Verdict….
Off on a jolly to Southwell….
Today the Judge is on a well-deserved jolly with friends.
He’s heading to Southwell race track where some really low-grade barrel-scrapers are set to disappoint backers on the famous Nottinghamshire sludge.
The card comprises three Class 6 races, three Class 5 races and – the feature event – a Class 4 contest worth just under £5k to winning connections. It promises to be an absolute cracker (????).
Only the bookmaking industry (and the racecourse authorities in league with them) could dream up a feast so lacking in any real food. We are dealing with the culinary equivalent of Netto’s home-brand sausage roll – all wrapper, ruff-puff pastry and so little sausage it is barely worthy of the name.
Attendance at Southwell often feels like something akin to an act of charity. It’s a bit like going to a ‘production’ put on by the local amateur dramatic society. You know it’s going to be dreadful and you don’t really want to be seen there – but if you don’t go then who will? Maybe the Judge will get lucky and the minibus will break down en route?
If not then maybe the Judge will get his just deserts with the two handicappers David O’Meara saddles at the track this afternoon. Nobody has their handicappers in better form right now – his last 30 qualifiers have produced 10 wins.
In the meantime it will do us no harm to revisit some of the basics of the betting craft….
Here for your enjoyment and edification we revisit some of the key attributes you should be looking for when putting tipsters to the test….
When trialing tipsters….
If you've signed up for a free trial of a tipping service then your primary objective is to test the performance of the service.
All of that’s pretty obvious. But I just wanted to share a few thoughts on another crucial and primary consideration I make whenever I trial a tipping service. In addition to all the above I keep two simple questions in my minds at all times through the trial period:
Am I getting what I actually need?
Membership of a tipping service is an expensive commitment. Over a year you’re going to be paying at least £150 for the privilege of receiving selections – and in all likelihood quite a lot more.
Let’s put it this way – a tipping service that charges ‘just’ £30 per month costs you £360 over a 12 month period. And that kind of monthly rate is not unusual. And nor is it out of the ordinary for services that want to project exclusivity or high levels of specific expertise to be charging a hell of a lot more.
Now if I’m going to be lashing out that kind of outlay on a tipping service then that service has got to be supplying me with something that I cannot do for myself – something I haven’t got the time, the knowledge or the information to do off my own bat. If it isn’t then the whole exercise is going to be a waste of my money and I won’t go any further than the end of the trial period.
For example, I would not pay some guy a monthly fee to tell me whether to bet black or red, odds or evens at the roulette table. And for the same reason I’m not going to line the pockets of some wide boy tipping service that only provides ‘tips’ in head-to-head contests between tennis players, snooker players, darts throwers and the like.
My feeling is that even if the guy is guessing or using a pin he’s going to be right 50% of the time – so I might as well keep the subscription fees in my pocket and start sharpening my own pin. I’m particularly disinterested in services where the consistent pick is the shorter priced participant in the head-to-head. Why do I need to pay some guy to tell me something the market is already shouting out loud and clear?
That said if the tipster has a long track record of picking it right when the outsider of a snooker match comes out on top then I might very well sit up and take notice. He’s beating the market view consistently – something I can’t do myself – and as such might be worth a subscription fee.
Similarly, a tipster who picks tournament winners with regularity would be of interest. So too a tipster with a track record of predicting correct scores, set-betting results or winning margins - because I’m not particularly proficient at finding those bets for myself. But some guy just advising me to back the jolly in a two-horse race isn’t really providing a ‘service’ worthy of the title and I’ll give him the swerve.
It’s the same with the racing. I don’t need a service pointing me towards the favourite, the horse with the top rating or the runner coming out of the big yard. I only have to look at an online betting tissue or a race card for that information. And it doesn’t cost me a penny.
And it’s the same with football. There are services out there charging decent money and telling subscribers they should be getting on Chelsea, Man City, Celtic, Real Madrid and Barcelona to win at home against bottom-of-the-table opposition. Come on! Tell us something we don’t know. Tell me when they’reNOT going to win at home! That would be something worth knowing – and I’d gladly pay for that kind of market-beating steer.
Goods signs in any tipping service….
Whenever I conduct a trial of a tipping service I’m looking very closely at what I actually get for my money. I’m trying to establish what it is that the service and the person/s behind it can do for me that I can’t necessarily or easily do for myself.
There are generally 4 things I’m looking for and, if I find them, the service becomes of interest:
Just some thoughts you might want to bear in mind the next time you’re trialling a tipping service.
I’ll be back next week.
Until then, my best regards.