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|Thr 10th Dec 2015 - Easy money from market inefficiencies...|
|Thr 3rd Dec 2015 - Guaranteed betting profits for all punters...|
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3rd December 2015
Good afternoon, friends,
In this issue of Punters’ Verdict….
Guaranteed profits from sports betting?
There are plenty of betting service providers out there who go to market offering 'guaranteed profits from sports betting'. Not all of them are bare-faced, brass-necked liars. The vast majority of them do fit into that category - but not quite all of them.
In an industry where almost every word that comes out of anybody's mouth has to be considered duplicitous or misguiding in some way - at least until proven otherwise - there is one group of operators who really do provide information that leads to guaranteed betting profits - or as close as is possible.
That group comprises the service providers and publishers who sell information and guidance relating to 'sports betting arbitrage'.
These people are not liars. Nor are they conmen. They're not making claims they cannot substantiate or replicate - over and over again. Their claims about what arbitrage can achieve for the sports bettor are pretty much true. The strategy really does produce guaranteed betting profits - provided the opportunities exist, provided you can spot them and assuming you are in a position to capitalise on them.
But what these people are doing - more often than not - is charging extortionate prices for information that isn't worth a fraction of what they ask you to pay for it. These people are the equivalent of the bloke in the pub who sells you a 72-carot 'diamond' which, when you get it valued, turns out to be a common zircon.
Introducing ‘Old Rope’ Publications….
I get a large mailbag and I can't tell you how many punters have written to me over the years complaining about paying £147 for a sports betting arbitrage course....
....or £59.99 for the 'ultimate sports betting arbitrage how-to guide'....
...or £99 for an annual service that flags up sports betting arbitrage opportunities as and when they appear...
....only to discover that they've forked out hard-earned cash for what is essentially a coil of old rope.... that the 'secret', 'high-value', 'jealously guarded' information they've paid for is readily accessible free of charge in a variety of different places.
Arbitrage or 'arbing' as it is known throughout the betting industry - really does work.
Why? Because it offers the ordinary punter like you and I the opportunity - assuming we execute the process properly - to profit from a wide range of sporting events in the same way a bookmaker does - making a small percentage profit on your overall stakes regardless of the actual outcome of the sporting event you are betting on.
The process takes advantage of inefficiencies or differences between markets. Where sports betting is concerned arbitrage focuses on the differences in the prices offered by individual bookmakers on a single sporting event.
Arbitrage is not everybody's cup of tea - it suits a specific type of punter with specific income-producing objectives in mind. But in an economic climate where money is getting tight and genuine risk-free profit opportunities are few and far between we're almost bound to see a resurgence of interest in sports betting arbitrage in the months and years ahead....
And that's my concern... we're going to see all the 'Old Rope' publishing companies and service providers crawling from out of the woodwork and peddling all manner of exotic-sounding information and services related to sports betting arbitrage... at prices so high you'll need to be carrying tanks of oxygen to come to terms with them....
I don't want any of you getting sucked into wasting your hard-earned dollar on such products... at such high-prices... when the information you need can be made available for nothing.... completely free of charge... right here.... in this column....
And that's what I intend to provide... in the remainder of this week's column... and in next week's.... everything you need to know to turn the table on the bookies and to start producing income from sports betting arbitrage opportunities.... immediately.... and without paying a hefty price tag....
The first step on the path to profit….
To understand how arbitrage works you first have to get to grips with how bookmakers operate and how they make their profit on almost every sporting event a trading desk prices up....
When a bookie prices up a sporting event he does so with the intention of making himself a profit whatever the outcome of the event.
Let's say John Higgins is playing Judd Trump in a snooker match. They're two very evenly matched players, both are in form and the outcome of the event could go either way. It's basically a toss of a coin. Both players have a 50/50 chance of winning and if we convert that 50/50 chance to fractional betting odds then both players would be priced up at even money - reflecting their true chances of winning the match.
But - at least as far as the bookmaker is concerned - there's a big problem with those odds....
Let's say the bookmaker takes two bets on the event. One punter backs Higgins at even money to the tune of £50. Another punter puts his £50 on Trump also at even money.
If Higgins wins then the punter who backed Higgins to the tune of £50 will be in profit. The punter who backed Trump will be out of pocket. The bookmaker? He'll break even.
If Trump wins then the punter who backed Trump will be in profit. The punter who backed Higgins will be down. The bookmaker will, once again, be breaking even.
In this case scenario the bookmaker cannot make a profit on the event - whether Higgins or Trump wins. He wouldn't even cover his operating costs. Obviously that's no good for a bookmaker. He wants to make a percentage profit on the event - whatever the outcome. And he does it by building his desired profit margin into his prices. Here's how:
The over-round book….
Instead of offering even money the bookmaker might offer 10/11 about both players (odds that say both players have less than a 50% chance of winning). Now we have a situation that works out very differently.
Let's use the same example where the bookmaker takes two separate bets of £50 on the event - one on Higgins and the other on Trump.
Now if Higgins wins the bookmaker gets to keep the £50 stake on Trump. He pays out £45.24 of it to the punter who backed Higgins (also returning his original £50 stake). The Higgins punter is up, the Trump punter is down and the bookmaker is £4.76 in front.
If Trump wins the bookmaker gets to keep the £50 stake on Higgins and uses it to pay out £45.24 to the punter who backed Trump (plus his original £50 stake). The Trump punter is up, the Higgins punter is down and the bookmaker is £4.76 in front.
It is very nice business whatever happens. By manipulating the prices and offering odds about each participant that are less than the true odds of them actually winning the match, the bookmaker has successfully constructed a situation where he makes an overall profit of £4.76 regardless of who wins the match.
The process is called 'making an over-round book' - and it's the over-round book that gives the bookmaker his edge over the punters who are betting with him. It's the over-round book that ensures bookmakers live in big country piles, razz up and down in brand new Jags and smoke Havana cigars while most punters lose money over the long term or break even at best.
Turning the table on the bookies….
But it's not all bad news. The way the industry is set up and the way it works creates opportunities for punters to pull off the same trick - only in reverse....
There will be multiple bookmakers betting on the Higgins v Trump match. They will all be accepting multiple bets of varying sizes on both participants. No two books will look exactly the same.
Some books will have taken more money for Higgins. Others will have taken more for Trump. And different bookmakers - owing to the scale of liabilities on one participant or another - will need to lengthen or shorten prices in an effort to attract bets on one participant or repel bets on another - the aim being to balance their individual books and make a profit on the event - whatever the outcome.
Some will want to shorten Higgins and lengthen Trump.
Others will want to shorten Trump and lengthen Higgins.
The point I'm trying to make is that there will be subtle differences in the prices available about each participant at different points and at different places during the lifespan of the market - and it's these differences or 'inefficiencies' - as they are known - that arbers seek to exploit.
In short, there are plenty of opportunities for astute punters to hijack the 'over-round' betting principle, turn it on its head and use it to extract a steady and reliable stream of risk-free betting income from the bookies....
It might not be crystal clear what I mean or how it works right now... but tune in again next week and I'll show you exactly how to start raking in a weekly risk-free income from the bookmaking industry.... without you having to spend a single penny piece.
I’ll be back with the Verdict next week.