Latest Cases - May 2015

In the Dock - Steady Eddie...

1st May 2015

Good afternoon, friends,

In this issue of Punters’ Verdict….

  • In the Dock – Steady Eddie….
  • The prices aren’t right for me….
  • On the Grapevine….

In the Dock – Steady Eddie….

Here at Punters’ Verdict we always have our eyes wide open. We are always looking into things, always sniffing about, always poking our nose in and getting ourselves involved. We don’t apologize for it. We have a job to do. We have a beat to police. We have an ongoing mission to accomplish.

As you know, one thing we do is take a peek at tipsters and their various wares. This week I want to report my finds on a service I took a look at a little while back – Steady Eddy’s Each Way Earners.

The website might look like it was put together some time before NASA first landed on the moon – it’s a real stroll down Memory Lane – but  don’t let that concern you. It’s only aesthetics after all and the way the site looks has no bearing on how the service is administered or how it performs.

I signed up for the Steady Eddy’s Each-Way Earners all the way back on 28th September 2014 and I took the daily selection – delivered via email the night before racing – right up until 14th February 2015. By that time I’d seen a total 103 selections. I think that’s a fair enough sample to go to work with.

The bets – one a day – are all advised each-way and I backed them 1 point each-way (so 2 points per selection in total). There are no advised prices supplied so I recorded results to returned industry SPs.

On the face of it, the selections didn’t do too badly at all. Of the 103 selections 20 were outright winners – a winning strike rate of just under 19.5%. There are plenty of services that would give up a limb for that type of success – and let’s not forget these tips are distributed free of charge for as long as you want them.

An additional 28 of the horses selected managed to hit the frame giving the service a place strike rate of 46.6%. That’s not a bad number either.

What was disappointing – given how many of the selections given out won or hit the frame – was the bottom line result. To level stakes I was 16 points down at the end of the period I tested. Given that we’re dealing with an each-way service hitting the frame at just under 50% I would have expected better. So what’s going on here?

The prices aren’t right for me….

The problem from my perspective – and it is just my opinion – are the prices the selections go off at. The average SP selections went off at a shade under 5/1. Just 18 of the 103 selections went off bigger than 6/1. And just 2 selections went off bigger than 12/1.

I’m a fan of each-way betting. But for me the interest lies in getting on each-way at big prices. Where the Steady Eddie Each-Way Earners are concerned the each-way part of strategy seems to represent some kind of insurance policy – protecting as much of your original stake should the win part of the bet go down.

There’s nothing wrong with that I suppose. One man’s strategy doesn’t suit the next. But it’s the choice of each punter or service provider to bet how he sees fit. But, being nosey, I had to ask… I sent over an email:

‘I’ve been following your Steady Eddie Each Way Earners for a while now and wanted to ask a question. I’m not sure I understand why you often advise each-way bets on runners at short prices. I’m assuming you see the each-way part of the bet as a form of insurance – so that when the horse comes close to winning but doesn’t quite manage it a portion of the stake is saved by the place return. Would that be correct?’

I soon got a reply from someone called ‘Top Tipster’:

The Steady Eddy tips are an each way price when they are advised in the email. It is circumstances on the day, e.g. withdrawal of other horses, which affect the price.’

I’ve got to admit to being any wiser after that curt reply – no salutation, no ‘thanks for getting in touch’ & no ‘hope to hear from you again soon’.

I can see how on-the-day circumstances or even a market rush to back a specific horse might affect and shorten the price of SOME runners. But so many of them? I can’t see it. I think the majority were advised when already trading at prices I’d personally consider short. With no advised price to work with though it is hard to reach a definitive conclusion on the issue.

I ran a little test and looked at the results as if I’d backed all the selections just to win – to a single point. Thanks largely to winners at 12/1 and 16/1 that strategy showed a profit of 1.62 points across the period of the trial. It beats the each-way results – but not by enough to make the effort involved in betting the selections worthwhile.

The Steady Eddy’s Each-Way Earners service is nothing if not generous. You can sign up for as long as you like. And that’s great. Because you get as much time as you need to check out what the service can do and what it’s all about. Not many services are prepared to prove themselves so openly. That is to be commended.

But whilst the strike-rates were good, my problem was the prices and the bottom-line results delivered. If the service is going to play each-way then I’d like to see braver calls. I think at the prices they currently play it is always going to be a case of generally running on the spot in terms of profit and loss. The fact that 3 of the 13 selections going off at 9/1 or bigger won demonstrates that the service has the potential to do very well.

But, hey, that’s just my opinion. It isn’t for me to design other people’s services. I just say it how I see it….

How do you see it? Check out Steady Eddy’s Each-Way Earners for yourself….

On the Grapevine….

What we hear and what we see in the betting industry this week….

  • Cry me a river – Ladbrokes & William Hill were in the paper this week publically sobbing over quarterly financial results. Both firms have been battered over the period by punters winning on heavily fancied participants in Premier League games and at the Cheltenham Festival. Whatever the pipe-smoking bore at the bar might say, the bookies don’t always win…. 
  • But you can rely on them shafting you – William Hill might look at other reasons the firm is losing money and custom. In Birmingham, punter Darren Tyler pounced like a panther when he saw Hills advertising a price of 18s for Villa to beat Liverpool and both teams to score in a shop window. The bet was happily accepted but when it came to payout time the firm fell back on palpable error rules – something punters can never do. After pressure from a local paper the firm paid out – but still managed to claw back £835 by not paying out on a related bet. Get the full story….
  • It sometimes goes the other way though – bet365, Skybet and Paddy Power deserve a bit of kudos this week. Grand Jesture was controversially declared a runner in last Saturday’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown – despite digging his heels in at the start, despite planting himself much further back from the tapes than the others and despite never even hinting at giving backers a run for their money. Some greedy firms held onto backers’ stakes. But not the race sponsors, Skybet or Paddy Power. They returned stakes. It’s called goodwill. It takes you a long way. Other firms might want to take note….
  • And sometimes bookies do have their uses – their offers can provide a route to easy cash. Take the big fight this weekend – Mayweather v Pacquiao. I don’t have any strong opinion. I’m hoping Pacquiao tests Mayweather like nobody has tested him before but I’m not sure yet who I’ll be backing. All I know for sure is that when I do bet I’ll be having a few quid on with Betfred (assuming I can convince my lady to open an account with them). New account holders qualify for enhanced odds – 8/1 about either fighter. It’s only to a £5 maximum stake and it hardly compares to the money the fighters are clawing in for going at it with one another. But even so – its easy work and easy money as Floyd Mayweather might say. Open an account that qualifies here.   

I’ll be back with the Verdict next week.

The Judge

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