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7th January 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In this issue of Punters’ Verdict….
The 7 resolutions of highly-effective punters….
In the early days of a new year our thoughts inevitably turn to starting afresh, turning over a new leaf and making some positive changes that we hope will deliver some equally positive outcomes.
What resolutions might improve our betting over the next 12 months?
How might we get better at finding good bets? How might we move towards producing a bottom-line result that reads more positively?
In the spirit of sharing I outline below the 7 resolutions which I believe, acted on over the long term, will improve the betting performance of any individual punter bar none.
1. Specialize and become an expert in your specific field….
One big advantage you have over the bookmaker is that he has to price up every market under the sun whilst you get to pick and choose how and where you play….
Adopting a shotgun approach to your betting – punting anything and everything in any market you come across plays right into the bookie’s grasping hands.
Instead you should use your advantage. Get to know one sport, one league or one market intimately. Study it; think about it; absorb every detail; own it. And only strike bets when your new-found expertise leads you to believe you know more and better than the bookie.
You won’t win on every bet you place – but you will be placing bets you truly believe in and you will avoid a lot of unnecessary losers. Long term your bottom line will benefit.
2. See no evil, hear no evil….
Quit listening to the opinions of others and quit being led by the sentiments expressed by the market.
The key to betting effectively and successfully lies in beating the market. If your bets are based on what other punters think (expressed in the market prices), or in what pundits, tipsters, journalists and other experts say and think then you are simply following the herd and you will experience the outcomes the herd routinely enjoy – you will lose.
Successful punters plough their own furrow. They go their own way. They stand against the market and received opinion. Strive to join them by trusting in your own opinions and insights above all other indicators.
3. Never let the price put you off a bet….
This is related to the points made above. I can’t tell you how many times punters have told me they’ve never backed a 33/1 winner – or words to that effect. On further investigation it often transpires that they have either never or very rarely struck a bet at 33/1. So it’s hardly surprising they haven’t backed a winner at 33/1 is it?
If you can make a strong case for a big-priced bet then don’t let the price put you off. Don’t see the big price and think ‘it can’t possibly win’.
This takes self-confidence, belief and self-discipline. Sometimes you will take the bet and look like a fool. But on the occasions your judgment proves correct you will be glad you changed your ways.
The bets you really ought to think twice about are the ones you strike at short prices – where the upside is minimal.
4. Squeeze maximum value out of every bet you place
This means always getting the best deal going. You should always be positioned to secure the best price, the best concessions, the best enhanced deals and whatever bonuses are available on your bet.
This means having accounts with all the top bookies and it requires you to do a bit of looking about so that you can figure out exactly where your bet is best placed.
It’s hassle, for sure. And it takes quite a bit of administration – depositing and withdrawing to and from multiple bookmaker accounts. But a lot of little things add up to a big result.
The fractional advantages you secure will add to your bottom line over the year. The rewards are worth the extra effort required.
5. Don’t chase good losers with bad….
I know it’s tough to take when your main bets of the day go down and you’re looking at a loss. All that thinking and all that effort has come to nothing and the bookie is holding your stakes.
It’s a bad beat but good bets – ones you’ve thought about - do go down. That’s part of the game. Don’t compound a disappointing day by chasing the losses on your good bets with more losers on bad bets.
Bad bets are the bets you didn’t intend to strike – the ones you are placing without thought because you want to get your original money back. Chances are that guesswork, wild speculation and angry punting will only lead to more losses.
Building a better bottom line is as much about avoiding bad bets as it is about finding good ones. Accept your losses and draw a line under them. There is always another day to fight back on.
6. Enjoy a portion of your winnings….
When you win make sure you take steps to ensure the bookie doesn’t get it all back further down the road.
Put some back into the betting pot for sure – build your bank. But use a portion of the winnings to pay a bill. Use a bit to treat yourself.
Make sure you get something concrete out of your hard work. Once the bill is paid and the treat is bought the bookie can’t get that money back.
7. Lay off the FOBTs….
This one might be a bit redundant because if you play on the bookmaker’s Fixed Odds Betting Terminals you are probably not reading this.
Instead you are probably curled up in a threadbare blanket in a cardboard box waiting for the Salvation Army to show up and pump you full of gruel so that you can make it through the winter.
Look at the accounts of publically-traded bookmakers. Most of their 7-figure profits come from FOBT machines. The fixed-odds games are money-printing machines for the bookies. You can’t win long term and you are a fool if you think you can.
Give FOBTs the swerve. Never play them again. You’ll have so much more money at your disposal. Your kids will appreciate clothes that are not made of hessian sacking. Your wife will not be so grouchy when she has something other than wellies to go to the ball in.
Take the steps and heed the advice outlined above – and you will be a better, more effective and happier punter for it….
I’ll be back with the Verdict next week.