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25th February 2011 - Going Dutch to twist a profit‏
18th February 2011 - Make sure YOU don't get caught out by Mr Brown
11th February 2011 - Read this before betting with William Hill and Betfred
2nd February 2011 - Warning - Don't fall for the bookies 'free' bet con
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25th February 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In this issue of Punters' Verdict:

  • Going Dutch to twist a profit....
  • A working example....
  • How it works out....
  • Get hold of the right tools....

Going Dutch to twist a profit....

Punters' Verdict reader KJ from Coalville writes to ask what is
meant by the term 'Dutching' - and how that type of betting can be
used to produce profits.

It's a good question and one I thought it might be useful to answer
in the letter rather than privately.

Put simply 'dutching' (also referred to in some circles as 'backing
around the board'
) is a betting tactic that can prove useful to
employ in a couple of vetting circumstances.

One of those circumstances is when you fancy multiple participants
in a single sporting event...

It might be 3 horses in the Grand National, for example....where the
field is so big (with 40 runners going to post year-on-year) that
you find you can't make a cast-iron case for betting just a single
horse.... or you don't want to watch your single selection go
backside about elbow at the first fence leaving you without an
interest for the last 8 minutes of the race....

Nick Pullen, the racing brain behind Horse Racing Focus and Racing
Angles
, tells me that he often turns to dutching in the big sprint
handicaps he targets over the summer months on the flat.

'These races generally consist of 16-24 runners. A late break from
the stalls... traffic problems in running... a stumble... indeed any
bad luck whatsoever can all get your horse beaten. In sprints -
where the race distances are so short and the races over so quick -
there's no time for horses to recover lost ground....

I often hedge my bets in these races and dutch 2, 3 or 4 selections.
In the sprint handicaps the prices can make dutching a very
worthwhile and profitable option. 'Live' horses consistently go off
at juicy double-figure odds.'

Other betting men of my acquaintance use dutching to target the
golf
... where they might fancy three, four or even more golfers at
the beginning of one of the weekly tour events - when there are
still 128 participants in the running.

Even football bettors regularly use dutching to twist a profit....
Not necessarily in the 90 minute match markets... but certainly in
something like the FA Cup Outright market when the tournament is
still at the 3rd Round Stage.... Or in the 1st or Anytime Goalscorer
markets for an individual match where they want to cover multiple
options....

A working example....

When you go dutch, instead of backing just a single selection, you
back all the selections you think have solid chances of winning.

The clever bit is that you split your stake to achieve the same
amount of profit whichever selection wins
- assuming one of the
selections does win, of course.

Let's use a fictional horse race as an example....

Let's say The Judge is the 4/6 jolly to win the Verdict Stakes.

You don't fancy his chances. The ground is against him, the jockey
hasn't saddled a winner in three weeks and the trainer has an
abysmal record at the course. You think the 4/6 overvalues him. You
think the price is too short - overestimating his true chances of
winning. You think he will get beat and you want to take him on.

The Judge is up against 12 opponents. You've done all your analysis
and you've narrowed your list of horses that look like they could
turn him over down to a shortlist
of 3.

The trouble is that you can't pick between them. They all have pros
and cons going for them in this specific race and you wouldn't like
to discard any of them. In your book they all have strong claims at
nice prices:

Jury Member is 8/1,
Executioner is 10/1
Court of Appeal is 12/1.

You could take a chance and back Court of Appeal - the biggest
priced horse on your shortlist.

You might get lucky. You might get the big payout. But imagine how
you'd feel if Jury Member or Executioner won the race? Gutted,
right?

To avoid that soul-destroying scenario you could 'dutch' all three.
Here's how....

How it works out....

Let's say your usual stake on a horse is £20.

You split this initial stake to ensure you get the same profit
whichever horse wins.

In practice, using our example, you would bet £7.97 on Jury Member,
£6.52 on Executioner and £5.52 on Court of Appeal.

Taking those steps would guarantee a return of £71.70 and a profit
of £51.70 - whichever of your picks wins the race.

Now what about if you want to make a profit of £100 whichever of
your picks wins the race? Simple, you just adjust your stakes
accordingly.

Using our example race, to guarantee a £100 profit you'd increase
your stakes to £15.41 on Jury Member, £12.61 on Executioner and
£10.57 on Court of Appeal.

You'll note the odd stakes. Feel free to round up or down for
convenience.

In the first example, £8, £6.50, £5.50.

In the second, £15.50, £12.60, £10.50.

Taking that step will lead to a slightly higher or lower profit
depending on which horse wins the race - but nothing too
significant.

Get hold of the right tools....

Now, how did I work all these stakes out? Did I use my lightening
quick mathematical brain? Not on your Nelly! I used an online
dutching calculator to do the donkey work for me
.

My favourite online dutching calculator is the work of a guy called
Malcom Smith. It's real simple to use - and it's free. And it's fast
too - just what you need when you need to act quickly. You don't
want to be doing complex calculations on the back of an envelope as
the horses go to post.

Dutching calculators might look a bit complex at first glance. But
they aren't. The best way to learn is to go and play. Within minutes
you'll be an expert - I guarantee it. The dutching tool itself -
along with simple and clear instructions can be found right here...

www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/DutchingCalculator.asp
 
I'll be back with the Verdict next week.

The Judge

www.PuntersVerdict.co.uk

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