Latest Cases - April 2011

Sports Betting Arbitrage - How to rake in your risk-free income from the bookies...

26th April 2011

Good afternoon, friends,

In this issue of Punters' Verdict....

  • Guaranteed profits from sports betting?
  • Introducing 'Old Rope' publications....
  • The first step on the path to profit....
  • The over-round book....
  • Turning the tables on the bookies....

Guaranteed profits from sports betting?

There are plenty of betting service providers out there who go to
market offering 'guaranteed profits from sports betting'. Not all of
them are bare-faced, brass-necked liars. The vast majority of them
do fit into that category - but not quite all of them.

In an industry where almost every word that comes out of anybody's
mouth has to be considered duplicitous or misguiding in some way -
at least until proven otherwise - there is one group of operators
who really do provide information that leads to guaranteed betting
profits - or as close as is possible.

That group comprises the service providers and publishers who sell
information and guidance relating to 'sports betting arbitrage'.

These people are not liars. Nor are they conmen. They're not making
claims they can not substantiate or replicate - over and over again.
Their claims about what arbitrage can achieve for the sports bettor
are pretty much true. The strategy really does produce guaranteed
betting profits - provided the opportunities exist, provided you can
spot them and assuming you are in a position to capitalise on them.

But what these people are doing - more often than not - is charging
extortionate prices for information that isn't worth a fraction of
what they ask you to pay for it. These people are the equivalent of
the bloke in the pub who sells you a 72-carot 'diamond' which, when
you get it valued, turns out to be a common zircon.

Introducing 'Old Rope' Publications....

I get a large mailbag and I can't tell you how many punters have
written to me over the years complaining about paying £147 for a
sports betting arbitrage course....

....or £59.99 for the 'ultimate sports betting arbitrage how-to

....or £99 for an annual service that flags up sports betting
arbitrage opportunities as and when they appear...

....only to discover that they've forked out hard-earned cash for
what is essentially a coil of old rope.... that the 'secret', 'high-
value', 'jealously guarded' information they've paid for is readily
accessible free of charge in a variety of different places.

Arbitrage or 'arbing' as it is known throughout the betting industry
- really does work.

Why? Because it offers the ordinary punter like you and I the
opportunity - assuming we execute the process properly - to profit
from a wide range of sporting events in the same way a bookmaker
does - making a small percentage profit on your overall stakes
regardless of the actual outcome of the sporting event you are
betting on.

The process takes advantage of inefficiencies or differences between
. Where sports betting is concerned arbitrage focuses on the
differences in the prices offered by individual bookmakers on a
single sporting event.

Arbitrage is not everybody's cup of tea - it suits a specific type
of punter with specific income-producing objectives in mind
. But in
an economic climate where money is getting tight and genuine risk-
free profit opportunities are few and far between we're almost bound
to see a resurgence of interest in sports betting arbitrage in the
months and years ahead....

And that's my concern... we're going to see all the 'Old Rope'
publishing companies and service providers crawling from out of the
woodwork and peddling all manner of exotic-sounding information and
services related to sports betting arbitrage... at prices so high
you'll need to be carrying tanks of oxygen to come to terms with

I don't want any of you getting sucked into wasting your hard-earned
dollar on such products... at such high-prices... when the
information you need can be made available for nothing....
completely free of charge... right here.... in this column....

And that's what I intend to provide... in the remainder of this
week's column... and in next week's.... everything you need to know
to turn the table on the bookies and to start producing income from
sports betting arbitrage opportunities.... immediately.... and
without paying a hefty price tag....

The first step on the path to profit....

To understand how arbitrage works you first have to get to grips
with how bookmakers operate and how they make their profit on almost
every sporting event their traders price up....

When a bookie prices up a sporting event he does so with the
intention of making himself a profit whatever the outcome of the

Let's say John Higgins is playing Peter Ebdon in a snooker match.
They're two very evenly matched players, both are in form and the
outcome of the event could go either way. It's basically a toss of a
coin. Both players have a 50/50 chance of winning and if we convert
that 50/50 chance to fractional betting odds then both players would
be priced up at even money - reflecting their true chances of
winning the match.

But - at least as far as the bookmaker is concerned - there's a big
problem with those odds....

Let's say the bookmaker takes two bets on the event. One punter
backs Higgins at even money to the tune of £50. Another punter puts
his £50 on Ebdon also at even money.

If Higgins wins then the punter who backed Higgins to the tune of
£50 will be in profit. The punter who backed Ebdon will be out of
pocket. The bookmaker? He'll break even.

If Ebdon wins then the punter who backed Ebdon will be in profit.
The punter who backed Higgins will be down. The bookmaker will, once
again, be breaking even.

In this case scenario the bookmaker cannot make a profit on the
event - whether Higgins or Ebdon wins
. He wouldn't even cover his
operating costs. Obviously that's no good for a bookmaker. He wants
to make a percentage profit on the event - whatever the outcome. And
he does it by building his desired profit margin into his prices.
Here's how:

The over-round book....

Instead of offering even money the bookmaker might offer 10/11 about
both players (odds that say both players have less than a 50% chance
of winning). Now we have a situation that works out very

Let's use the same example where the bookmaker takes two separate
bets of £50 on the event - one on Higgins and the other on Ebdon.

Now if Higgins wins the bookmaker gets to keep the £50 stake on
Ebdon. He pays out £45.24 of it to the punter who backed Higgins
(also returning his original £50 stake). The Higgins punter is up,
the Ebdon punter is down and the bookmaker is £4.76 in front.

If Ebdon wins the bookmaker gets to keep the £50 stake on Higgins
and uses it to pay out £45.24 to the punter who backed Ebdon (plus
his original £50 stake). The Ebdon punter is up, the Higgins punter
is down and the bookmaker is £4.76 in front.

Its nice business whatever happens. By manipulating the prices and
offering odds about each participant that are less than the true
odds of them actually winning the match, the bookmaker has
successfully constructed a situation where he makes an overall
profit of £4.76 regardless of who wins the match.

The process is called 'making an over-round book' - and it's the
over-round book that gives the bookmaker his edge over the punters
who are betting with him. It's the over-round book that ensures
bookmakers live in big country piles, razz up and down in brand new
Jags and smoke Havana cigars while most punters lose money over the
long term or break even at best.

Turning the tables on the bookies.... 

But it's not all bad news. The way the industry is set up and the
way it works creates opportunities for puntes to pull off the same
trick - only in reverse....

There will be multiple bookmakers betting on the Higgins v Ebdon
match. They will all be accepting multiple bets of varying sizes on
both participants. No two books will look exactly the same.

Some books will have taken more money for Higgins. Others will have
taken more for Ebdon. And different bookmakers - owing to the scale
of liabilities on one participant or another - will need to lengthen
or shorten prices in an effort to attract bets on one participant or
repel bets on another - the aim being to balance their individual
books and make a profit on the event - whatever the outcome.

Some will want to shorten Higgins and lengthen Ebdon.

Others will want to shorten Ebdon and lengthen Higgins.

The point I'm trying to make is that there will be subtle
differences in the prices available about each participant at
different points and at different places during the lifespan of the
market - and it's these differences or 'inefficiencies' - as they
are known - that arbers seek to exploit.

In short, there are plenty of opportunities for astute punters to
hijack the 'over-round' betting principle, turn it on its head and
use it to extract a steady and reliable stream of risk-free betting
income from the bookies....

It might not be crystal clear what I mean or how it works right
now... but tune in again next week and I'll show you exactly how to
start raking in a weekly risk-free income from the bookmaking
industry.... without you having to spend a single penny piece.

The Judge

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